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20121106
20121106
Search Results 0 to 12 of about 13 (some duplicates have been removed)
're going to win iowa. we're going to win wisconsin. we're going to win nevada. we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> check those numbers, what do you make of those states? is that a good list? >> i think the ceiling is somewhere 300, 303 if you want to be exact the numbers i've done. if you throw in north carolina it could be 318 max. that's possible. they could all be 51, 49 at the end of the day. i do want to say i think a lot of us, we're sort of victims of 2004. before 2004 we were all more convinced of the challenger incumbent rule. that somehow challengers always got the undecided and then a tie goes to the challenger. then you're happened when bush won frankly as many of the undecided as he did. then you'd have to go back to '76 the last time the person with momentum lost at the end. lost the popular vote. that was ford. ford had the momentum but carter won in the end. even gore, he had the last-second momentum. he did win the popular vote. having the momentum ha
radio for the rest of the day but i have been on the ground in nevada, colorado, iowa florida, north carolina virginia pennsylvania, ohio, and i think that's it, but making a loop, kind of like that lady at the airport in the white zone kind of thing just making the loop. [ laughter ] >> stephanie: you know interesting you used the phrase about pundits like to create drama. alfre woodard is paid to create drama. i literally tuned in this morning and somebody saying if the black turnout isn't the same, won't we be able to say tomorrow -- they're creating story lines that haven't happened to try to create this narrative. >> caller: they are and they do the narratives that mitt romney was surging in the polls after surging in anybody's mind after that first sort debate. it has to be that or else they're out of work. they get excited and they have their own world that they do together but the truth is people know what it is. they know that when those guys say they're going to on day one start taking apart the affordable care act when he won't even comment on the led bedder for fair pay.
. you have this interesting dynamic formulating here, but overall when you look at nevada, for example, where foreclosures are up, the housing market is still struggling, unemployment up, the president could win nevada because of the latino vote there. >> that's true. i'll be honest with you, tamron. we've had this discussion before. i think my party is having a difficult time with the hispanic population, particularly in certain key areas. it's incumbent to make sure over the next several cycles we do everything we can to reach out to voters and talk about our shared interests and shared values and our shared principles. in this particular election i know that the economy and jobs the way hispanic families are hurting within this economy is what they take into account. it may not help us get to the point where we have a lion's share of the vote to help us win in certain key states, but it's the discussion we're having and move inning that direction about having that conversation. >> the conversation you're having year after year, george w. bush, karl rove, jeb bush all indicated the i
states to get to 270. if you look at ohio, if you look at wisconsin, if you look at nevada, if you look at iowa, the president has been consist eventually in the lead there. and romney basically has to run the table to even have a shot. >> but the republican argument, ari, which was the john kerry argument, which has always been the argument in these situations, is when the incumbent polls below 50, the incumbent is in danger no matter what the other number is. so if the incumbent is at 48, the challenger is at 46, the chal enner is probably in a better position, most of the time. however, we're making new mathematical history in these campaigns all the time. and you can see that argument, because it's an old argument. it's been around a while. it didn't work for john kerry and it's hard to say what's going to happen now. >> yeah. i spent over a year working seven days a week for john kerry so i'm familiar with that argument, i remember that argument. i think the critical question then as now is whether the challenger is viewed to be credible by election day. if you look at polling of a
state of nevada in mitt romney's column, and that's how you get it. it's not very implausible, and, yes, we know that right now the president seems like a favorite in nevada, and that's what makes this less likely than what most folks think, but between that and don't forget you've got congressional districts in nebraska and maine. the point is if you remember how we started this campaign which was the state of iowa decided by eight votes between rick santorum and mitt romney and then oh, by the way the results flipped two weeks later, i've always worried that that was foreshadowing this nightmare scenario. >> as you talk to us, chuck, i want to note that vice president biden is waiting in line to vote in delaware this morning. we'll keep an eye on that as you and i continue to talk. >> reporter: speaking of vice president biden. under this scenario and people are wondering if you don't get to 270, this would go to the house, so the house would elect the president. the senate would elect the vice president, so under this scenario your most likely outcome romney/biden. >> then we'll know
would be nevada. it's a state a that a lot of republicans and democrats slightly leans in the democratic category. but it's not an implausible scenario. if nobody got 270 then the house of representatives would decide who the president was, but the u.s. senate would vote on who the vice president was. that means the most likely outcome under this scenario is a romney/biden scenario. >> another scenario if ohio is too close to call. >> here's the problem with ohio. they have a new law that says provisional ballots, and these are ballots that are questioned there, maybe somebody didn't bring an i.d., maybe a signature is off, they will let you vote, but you get put in a separate stack. they wouldn't even start counting them until november 17th. today is still november 6th. so in 11 days, let's say the margin is less than 50,000, there's likely to be over 200,000 provisional ballots cast in ohio. they wouldn't start counting those until 11 days. . they wouldn't start counting until then. it would make 2000 feel like a flakback for people. >> that brings us to our final nightmare scenario an
Search Results 0 to 12 of about 13 (some duplicates have been removed)